Cold shocks raise risks of intimate partner violence — economic supports and social programs could help

Investigations into connections between climate factors and gender-based violence have largely focused on exposure to extreme heat as an aggravator. That's a big reason why researchers from Oregon State University, Colorado State University, Wake Forest University, and the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization wanted to look into the "critical yet understudied threat" of extreme cold as a potential driver, Leah Lakdawala, an associate professor at WFU, told CG via email. 

The research team's findings indicate that cold shocks can increase the probability of domestic violence through two primary mechanisms — and point to one potential solution.

"The mechanisms linking extreme temperatures to intimate partner violence are remarkably similar whether we're examining heat or cold," Lakdawala said, explaining that prolonged periods of very high and very low temperatures can both reduce crop yields, for example, increasing stress associated with income loss in agricultural communities — a demographic focus of the study. 

"Additionally, both extreme heat and extreme cold reduce mobility and confine people indoors, increasing the time partners spend together in close quarters, which can amplify tensions and create more opportunities for violence."

The researchers' publication in the Journal of Development Economics suggests that cold shocks can increase IPV through decreased income and lengthy homebound periods, with disproportionate risks to women in low- and middle-income countries. The team analyzed 2010-2018 socioeconomic and weather data from the Peruvian Highlands, "where IPV is common and where extreme cold events have become more frequent," according to an OSU release.

Meanwhile, extreme cold and winter storms are intensifying globally, as are many associated risks. Michelle Abdelnoor previously told The Fuller Project about her experiences amid Texas's historic 2021 Winter Storm Uri, when an abusive partner convinced her to stay home to avoid the snow and ice. "The accusations or outbursts of anger that would have taken three weeks were condensed to five days," she said.

Extensive time spent together indoors stood out as a contributing factor in the Peru study, but the prime driver was found to be the loss of agricultural income. Such losses can inflame tensions and lead to violence — but they may also be defused through ongoing social programs.

"Our research reveals an encouraging finding: Social safety net programs can substantially buffer households against climate-induced violence," Lakdawala said. "We found that cold shocks produced smaller increases in intimate partner violence in areas where vulnerable households had better access to programs like conditional cash transfers (which support families who keep children in school and attend health check-ups) and non-contributory pensions for elderly individuals without retirement savings. … When extreme weather destroys crops or threatens livestock, households with alternative income sources experience less economic desperation — and consequently less violence."

To be crystal clear, Lakdawala isn't suggesting that it's good policy to pay people to stay in dangerous relationships. She's saying that addressing climate-related economic needs through continuous social programs might prevent some IPV from ever happening. And if such programs might serve as an effective violence-prevention strategy in rural Peru, what about systemic solutions elsewhere?

In the United States, Rise — which aims to protect the civil rights of sexual assault survivors — posted on social media in the lead-up to a recent major winter storm, "When people are forced indoors, rates of intimate partner violence rise." The nonprofit noted that higher rates of IPV have been linked to a variety of extreme weather events and pointed to safety strategies, including checking in regularly with friends and calling the National Domestic Violence Hotline. 

While such tips can be essential, Amanda Lyon — a training and technical assistance manager with the Chicago, Illinois-based National Center on Domestic Violence, Trauma, and Mental Health — told CG in a statement, "Preparedness for extreme weather and climate emergencies must go beyond asking survivors to manage their own safety."

Lyon said the center calls for ensuring access to telehealth services to address weather-related barriers to care, providing safe alternatives to winter weather emergency shelters that could force people into proximity with abusers, and centering survivors' voices, among other priorities.

She also highlighted the importance of economic supports for survivors — including those that could enable a person to leave a dangerous relationship or environment — and "[integrating] intimate partner violence expertise into disaster planning and response systems."

That last point resonates strongly with one of Lakdawala's takes on the Peru research. She not only calls for coordinating climate adaptation and domestic violence prevention, but notes that doing so might multiply impacts: 

"Policymakers should recognize that investments in robust social protection systems deliver compound benefits — protecting both household economic security and physical safety, particularly as climate extremes become more frequent and severe."